What is the Halving?

What Is the Halving?

• The halving (also called "halvening") is an event where Bitcoin's mining reward is cut in half. It occurs automatically every 210,000 blocks (approximately four years).
• Bitcoin's total supply is fixed at 21 million BTC. The halving is the mechanism that gradually slows the pace of issuance toward this cap.
• This is a rule that Satoshi Nakamoto hardcoded into Bitcoin from the very beginning, and no one can change it. Like how gold mining yields diminish over time, Bitcoin is designed to become increasingly scarce.

Halving Schedule

• The four halvings so far and the next scheduled one, at a glance (prices are rough reference values).

• The next halving (5th) will occur at block 1,050,000 — expected around spring 2028, though the exact date depends on the pace of block production. The last bitcoin is estimated to be issued around the year 2140.

The Supply Curve

• Bitcoin's issuance schedule is entirely predictable. This is fundamentally different from fiat currencies, where central banks can print money at their discretion.
• As of 2026, approximately 20 million BTC (about 95.2% of the cap) have already been issued. The remaining ~1 million BTC will be gradually issued over the next 114 years. The 20 millionth bitcoin was mined in early March 2026, reaching this milestone.
• The annual inflation rate (new issuance rate) decreases with each halving, dropping to approximately 0.84% after the 2024 halving. This is below gold's annual mining dilution rate of approximately 1.5%.
• Bitcoin's supply curve resembles an S-curve, with rapid early issuance that asymptotically approaches 21 million BTC over time.

Price Impact

• All four past halvings have been followed by significant price increases within 12–18 months. Approximately 100x after the 1st, 30x after the 2nd, and 8x after the 3rd.
• The hypothesis is that reduced supply (halving) combined with maintained or increasing demand causes a scarcity premium to be reflected in price.
• However, there is no guarantee that past patterns will repeat. As the market matures, the halving's impact may already be priced in.
• Halvings also directly affect miner profitability. When rewards halve, less efficient miners can no longer break even and tend to exit. This is known as "miner capitulation."
• More than two years after the fourth halving in April 2024, Bitcoin's price action as of July 2026 diverges from historical patterns. After reaching its ATH 12–18 months post-halving (April–October 2025), a sharp decline followed, and as of mid-2026 the price remains well below that peak.
• Whether massive institutional and ETF inflows have fundamentally altered the traditional 4-year cycle, or merely delayed it, remains one of the most debated questions in crypto markets.

The Stock-to-Flow Model

• The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio is the ratio of existing supply (stock) to annual new supply (flow). A higher value indicates greater scarcity.
• Gold's S2F ratio is approximately 62 (62 years' worth of stock exists). After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin's S2F ratio is approximately 120, significantly exceeding gold's.
• The S2F model proposed by anonymous analyst "PlanB" claims that Bitcoin's price correlates logarithmically with its S2F ratio, and it attracted enormous attention.
• However, the model faces criticism, including overfitting to historical data and ignoring demand-side variables.

Economic Impact on Miners

• The halving directly impacts miners' business models. Rewards for the same computing power are halved overnight, forcing miners to continuously improve cost efficiency.
• Major hardware generation turnover occurs around each halving. Older ASIC generations can no longer justify their power costs and are replaced by the latest, more efficient equipment.
• When miner revenue drops, hash rate may temporarily decline, but the difficulty adjustment mechanism restores profitability for remaining miners.
• In the long term, transaction fees are expected to replace block rewards as miners' primary revenue source. Whether this transition occurs smoothly is a critical question for Bitcoin's long-term sustainability.

Future Halvings & Long-Term Outlook

• The next halving (5th) is expected around 2028, reducing the mining reward to 1.5625 BTC. Halvings will continue approximately every four years until all 21 million BTC are issued around the year 2140.
• With each successive halving, new issuance becomes negligible, and miners increasingly rely on transaction fees for revenue. Whether this transition can maintain network security is a critical long-term challenge.
• Bitcoin's supply schedule is completely transparent and predictable — a stark contrast to central bank monetary policy. This property is the foundation of Bitcoin's credibility as "digital gold."